Are AFL Underdog Bets Worthwhile?
When it comes to betting on the AFL, many punters wonder if betting on the underdog is a good option. In most cases, the payout you get from betting on the favourite is quite low. On the other hand, betting on the underdog is risky but can pull in a big return if the team manages to pull off an upset. A we all know, upsets do happen and when they do, you want to be able to take advantage of the odds on offer. If you want to make money betting on the AFL, you need to do is look at sports betting from a holistic standpoint. Essentially, you need to look at the big picture and decide what type of betting will benefit you the most.
A Losing Winner
With AFL betting, especially later on in the season, favourites tend to be a be a sure bet and will most likely pay out, but not always. Consider the example of an AFL bet offering odds of $1.25. While we are pretty sure the team will win, there is the chance that they can lose; it has happened before and it will happen again. If you are thinking clearly, you would be silly to risk betting $100 in order to win just $25. The bigger picture says that the risk is not worth the reward.
A lot of the time, a solid betting model will actually suggest betting on the underdog. However, if you are going to be implementing this strategy, the betting sizes must be chosen carefully. The way to do this is to bet on the team with odds that will make you a profit in the long run. For instance, if the Bulldogs are playing Essendon and the Bulldogs have been having a good season while Essendon are struggling to find form, the stats will add up to around a 70% chance of the Bulldogs winning with the AFL grand final betting.
Doing the Math
The bookmakers however, feel that the Bulldogs have an even better chance of claiming victory and offer odds of $1.22 for the Bulldogs and $4.68 on Essendon. In this case, the more favourable bet is actually on Essendon. Even if we suspect the Bulldogs will win, there is a 30% chance they won’t. The payoff from the Essendon bet is far higher and subsequently offers a better chance of making money in the long run. We can look at math as such (0.3*4.68-1>0).
In each bet, there is an optimal stake that should bet set. For underdogs, betting lower amounts reduces your risk while maximising your profit. Betting on favourites is completely the opposite. A sure favourite requires a much higher stake in order to pull in a profit. Fine tuning the numbers is how you are going to be making money. Deciding whether to bet on a favourite or an underdog should all come down to the odds offered and the potential return. This can be summed up by saying that a punter should always bet more on favourable favourites and less on favourable underdogs.